Home prices will drop 5% in 2023, says Nationwide

Nationwide expects home prices to fall 5 percent next year as activity is expected to stabilize below pre-pandemic levels.

Forecasts from the UK’s largest building association point to a softer landing for the property market in 2023 than others have predicted, despite volatile economic conditions.

The government’s Office for Budget Responsibility predicted a 9 per cent drop in the next two years, estate agent Savills predicted a 10 per cent drop in 2023 and Rightmove founder Harry Hill said house prices could drop 20 per cent if it entered the UK. into a deep recession. .

Early indications are that property price growth is already beginning to slow, with Halifax reporting a fall of 2.3 per cent, or £6,800, in November.

Robert Gardner, chief economist at the Nationwide Building Society, said: ‘It will be difficult for the market to regain much momentum as the economic headwinds strengthen, with real earnings falling further, the Bank of England raising interest rates higher and with the labor market broader. It is expected to weaken as the economy contracts.

“The risks are skewed to the downside, but there is still a good chance that we can have a relatively soft landing next year with activity stabilizing modestly below pre-pandemic levels and house prices falling, perhaps by about 5 percent.”

Moreover, while mortgage rates are falling, they are not yet back to the levels seen before the fall when they rose in the wake of the September “mini budget”.

On August 1, 2022, the two-year average fixed rate for all deposit volumes was 2.52 percent, according to data from Moneyfacts.

The figure peaked at 6.65 percent on Oct. 20 with the five-year flat rate at 6.51 percent on the same day. However, average fixed rates for both two- and five-year mortgages have fallen steadily since then.

Most now expect mortgage rates to stabilize somewhere between 4 percent and 5 percent next year.

The two-year fixed average is currently 5.8 per cent, while the five-year average is 5.61 per cent, and continues to fall despite the Bank of England’s recent rate hike to 3.5 per cent; It is the highest level since October 2008.

However, unlike Nationwide, others believe the drop in home prices will reach double digits.

Real estate agency Knight Frank expects values ​​to fall 10 per cent over the next two years as buyers and sellers “recalculate their options”.

“Mortgage rates will eventually settle to at least two percentage points higher than they were this spring, which means it could be a ‘wake up and smell the coffee’ moment for the housing market,” said Tom Bell, Knight’s head of UK residential research. “. sincere.

“Higher borrowing costs will keep transaction volumes in check and lead to more widespread price declines in 2023.”

Savills’ November forecast of a 10 per cent drop in 2023 was a much more bleak outlook than the 1 per cent drop in May.

Still, the real estate agent said it expects prices to rebound and rise 1 percent in 2024 — a marginally more optimistic outlook than rival Knight Frank.

Earlier this month, the latest Nationwide House Price Index revealed that house price growth slowed to just 4.4 percent in November, down from annual property inflation of 7.2 percent the previous month. Between October and November, house prices fall by around £4,500.

This decline of 1.4 percent was the sharpest monthly drop since June 2020 and more than the 0.9 percent drop recorded between September and October.

Another sign of the market cooling came from Rightmove which reported that the average asking price fell by around £8,000 in December, the biggest drop in nearly four years.

The real estate portal said the decline was due to the subprime mortgage crisis as home sellers “adjusted their expectations” to the new market conditions.

She added that the asking price for the average home for sale is now £359,137, compared to £366,999 last month.